Calculations are up, time to make some great picks based on numbers!
Last event I was just 20 points over the Fantasy Bot and was behind untill the semifinals. I wasn't believing those calculations very much on the first event and was almost caught by it. Right now I'm gonna stick to the numbers a little more.
Everyone was expecting to see how Adriano would perform in the first event after winning a world title. On snapper rocks he showed that he maintains the focus with the same power and performance surf. For this reason he is a strong competitor to pick for Bells Beach. Everyone knows the kind of power surf competitors have to show for this event.
This guys has all the skills necessary to be a world champion. It's just a matter of time for John John to reach this point on his career. For the Australian leg his coach is Bede Durbidge (always high in the rankings). I believe we are going to see a grow momentum in his career, and that is the right time to start believing in this guy. And for sure he has the skills to rock at Bells (just watch his perfect 10 2014)
The Fantasy Bot has picked Joel Parkinson, he is not a difficult pick if you look only for calculation. Joel draws lines like any other surfer in the event, and that's almost all you need for Bells. Taking him out of my team is still a difficult decision, Joel and John are almost tied in the calculations, but I see a different surf for John John in this Australian leg. As my calculations can't see and predict those small details.
Supporting this choice is just easy. Mick is one of the best surfers at Bells, has won the event several times. If you look at Past Position Rank you will see he is on top, it means that during the last 5 years he has done great at Bells. He has all the power and lines needed to win this event.
Gabriel also has great numbers at Bells, it is difficult not to choose him. The winner of 2014 has had a weak start at 2015, that is true. However, looking at the first five events of 2015 the one he did better was Bells. He is just a great surfer for this event and one of the best Goofies no tour.
Look at calculations and you will see that Taj and Nat have the same points. The Fantasy Bot has picked Nat because Taj has a Rd1 colision with Joel Parkinson. Nat is in a great position for Bells because he has gone to semifinals last year, but Taj wins at Perfomance Rank. For this reason I will pick Performance over Past Positions, lets see wich one will perform better.
Kelly is ranked low in Momentum Rank (see how many positions he has lost on the first event). However when we look at Performance Rank + Past Position Rank we see that he is just behind Mick Fanning on Tier B (you can simulate it at the Fantasy Simulator). Even though he did not have a great start, this event is the time for him to grow on positions. Numbers support him.
Not picking Nat for this event was a difficult decision. But looking for my point of view for this event, I'm placing Performance Rank over Past Position (this is easy to forecast with the Fantasy Simulator). In Bells we will see if Performance will beat Past Positions
This guy is definetily the Tier C with the numbers on his favour. His surf is perfect for Bells. The Fantasy Bot would have picked him if he was on Tier B. However I do have a colision on my team, Jordy is surfing against John on Rd1, you should definetly avoid this situation. But looking at my other picks I see no other way out. If I pick Joel on Tier A, I will have a colision between Taj and Joel. I will stick to calculations, Jordy and John have the skills to pass a Rd2.
Davey is a great surfer, has just came from QS and is eager to make some points. I really believe in the surf of this guy. This will be my bet for the event, although the numbers do not support him.
Not an easy choice. Adam Melling has the calculations by his side and the potential to do great at Bells. Taking him off my team is a risk I'm taking. If you want to go conservative, choose him.